The Final Countdown - Indices Special - Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones, DAX

THE FINAL COUNTDOWN

I am publishing this article a bit ahead of my usual schedule as I find a lot of mismatch in published news articles and what the charts tell me.

What The NEWS says

·         “Fed is all set to lift off the rate cap and Fed has given assurance that the rate increases will be gradual.”

·         “Markets rise to give thumbs up to the Fed’s decision of gradual rate increases.”

·         “In the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, specific phrases/ set of words have been replaced with another set of words, which means that Fed will be compelled to increase the interest rates in the coming December FOMC meeting.”

Such news items I keep reading on various websites and in various articles. Various analysis have been made and aired.

The minutes of the last FOMC meeting are available on the net also. Given below is the link:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Honestly, for me it is tough to interpret the words selectively chosen by Fed and somehow I get a feel that the Fed dances to the tune of the Wall Street to carefully choose the words to convey a message what the Wall Street wishes to listen. So much hype is created around these two events (the FOMC meetings and the release of the minutes) that I sometimes feel that the minutes of the meeting are virtually dictated by the Wall Street through the hype generated through the published news articles.

AND

What the CHARTS foretell

The Final Countdown

I am fascinated by the charts and technical indicators generated by silver. Silver is considered to be one of the most speculative and volatile commodities and the most tough to interpret and follow. Yet I draw a lot of inspiration and references from the various charts of silver and the technical indicators/ parameters generated by the data of silver.

The Markets/ Indices remain bearish

Therefore in my present article I will draw reference from one of the old charts of silver, without drawing any conclusive downward targets and at the same time continuing to maintain my previous stance that the markets are bearish and also that now the ‘Final Countdown’ has begun.

Please note that for the multi-period charts shown below, the completion period is either approximately a week away or about a month and a week away. Though a lot can happen in a week’s/ a month’s time, yet approx. 100 points or so up from here will not at all alter the reference patterns and my stance. Approx. 100 points or more below the current levels will only strengthen my stance. Moreover, during the formation of such reference patterns, the patterns are usually not sustainable for a long period of time and therefore their snapshot picture formation is more important than sustainability of formation.

I do not wish to give targets to my readers (the most common asked question from the readers of my blog), simply because I do not drive the market. Secondly, although the past identical/ similar patterns give a good reference, yet these may or may not yield the similar outcomes/ returns. Thirdly, the art or science of calculation of targets is still a mystery for me. I just simply know that as a thumb rule, previous peaks offer targets or resistances.

Best wishes for the festive season.

Contact:

The author can be contacted at: riskadvisory@outlook.com

Disclaimer:

These extracts from my trading books are for educational purposes only. Any advice contained therein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs and must not be construed as advice to buy, sell, hold or otherwise deal with any commodities, currencies, securities or other investments. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained therein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.